Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.74 – 86.43

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109.7 ±11.6

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX -6.03Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 31.24Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 18.53Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.2 ±11.7

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 1.74Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 61.82Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 22.87Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5894, 11169, 4597

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5894, 11169, 4597

Auto

18.4 46%

Teleop

12.2 30%

Endgame

9.8 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7138, 2689, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7138, 2689, 10032

Auto

27.1 33%

Teleop

40.6 49%

Endgame

15.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.7pts

Blue projected score86.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.7
Score range: 22–108
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109.7Season APEX194.2

18.4Auto27.1

12.2Teleop40.6

9.8Endgame15.2

56Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	20
teleop	34	37
endgame	9	16
foul	0	0
total	57	73

Result

Final score

57 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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