Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.14 – 64.88

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.6 ±10.4

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 37.85Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 11.07Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 54.22Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.9 ±12.8

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 23.89Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 9.21Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 31.78Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2158, 11169, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2158, 11169, 10385

Auto

17.4 17%

Teleop

35.9 36%

Endgame

47.1 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4364, 7521, 8088

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4364, 7521, 8088

Auto

17.3 31%

Teleop

22.1 39%

Endgame

16.7 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.1pts

Blue projected score64.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.3
Score range: 46–122
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.6Season APEX152.9

17.4Auto17.3

35.9Teleop22.1

47.1Endgame16.7

80Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	19
teleop	43	41
endgame	30	29
foul	5	0
total	107	89

Result

Final score

107 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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