Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.77 – 132.53

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.5 ±10.4

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 1.72Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 16.23Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 98.82Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.6 ±11.6

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 48.82Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 47.58Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 36.13Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9444, 5503, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9444, 5503, 4639

Auto

28.9 25%

Teleop

60.4 53%

Endgame

25.3 22%

Strengths

· 4639 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8507, 4219, 4328

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8507, 4219, 4328

Auto

35.9 27%

Teleop

62.2 46%

Endgame

36.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.8pts

Blue projected score132.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.8
Score range: 98–152
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.5Season APEX192.6

28.9Auto35.9

60.4Teleop62.2

25.3Endgame36.9

2Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	17
teleop	4	35
endgame	3	34
foul	0	0
total	36	86

Result

Final score

36 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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