Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.02 – 68.49

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.3 ±11.7

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 37.74Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 44.85Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 18.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.6 ±11.7

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 14.73Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 39.14Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 14.62Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8114, 2687, 9311

/ 100 compat

Projected

101 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8114, 2687, 9311

Auto

17.2 18%

Teleop

48.6 50%

Endgame

31.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9478, 6357, 9577

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9478, 6357, 9577

Auto

24.3 34%

Teleop

39.6 55%

Endgame

8.2 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101pts

Blue projected score68.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.5
Score range: 49–120
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 104.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.3Season APEX175.6

17.2Auto24.3

48.6Teleop39.6

31.3Endgame8.2

36Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	23
teleop	76	69
endgame	28	27
foul	0	15
total	135	134

Result

Final score

135 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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