Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.06 – 252.19

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375 ±10.5

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 53.38Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 106.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 14.67Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499 ±9.8

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 59.29Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 35.15Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 157.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2689, 3035, 5894

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2689, 3035, 5894

Auto

37.0 22%

Teleop

89.9 54%

Endgame

40.0 24%

Strengths

· 3035 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10385, 8088, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10385, 8088, 2468

Auto

37.7 16%

Teleop

144.1 59%

Endgame

61.3 25%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.1pts

Blue projected score252.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.1
Score range: 155–271
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 103.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375Season APEX499

37Auto37.7

89.9Teleop144.1

40Endgame61.3

42Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	21
teleop	59	90
endgame	17	70
foul	0	30
total	124	211

Result

Final score

124 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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