Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.55 – 63.65

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.4 ±12.2

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 8.9Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -0.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 17.36Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120.5 ±13.3

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 17.93Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9137Bionic Vipers

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 16.85Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 28.87Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 7088, 11224

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 7088, 11224

Auto

14.3 47%

Teleop

3.3 11%

Endgame

12.7 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9478, 9137, 4332

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9478, 9137, 4332

Auto

20.4 33%

Teleop

25.2 41%

Endgame

16.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.6pts

Blue projected score63.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.1
Score range: 7–83
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.4Season APEX120.5

14.3Auto20.4

3.3Teleop25.2

12.7Endgame16.3

105Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	10	22
endgame	13	7
foul	20	0
total	59	46

Result

Final score

59 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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