Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.38 – 129.86

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.1 ±11.2

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 39.13Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 18.79Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 107.46Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.6 ±10.4

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 54.19Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 14.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 61.62Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2158, 9311, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2158, 9311, 3035

Auto

15.1 9%

Teleop

82.8 50%

Endgame

69.2 41%

Strengths

· 3035 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2689, 9577, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2689, 9577, 10385

Auto

39.7 32%

Teleop

64.8 53%

Endgame

18.1 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.4pts

Blue projected score129.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.5
Score range: 111–184
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 104.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.1Season APEX269.6

15.1Auto39.7

82.8Teleop64.8

69.2Endgame18.1

64Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	31
teleop	76	63
endgame	57	25
foul	5	0
total	156	119

Result

Final score

156 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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