Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.07 – 50.96

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.4 ±11.7

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 21.37Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 54.73Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 34.97Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.5 ±12.2

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 17.62Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 13.95Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 19.39Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9311, 10385, 8114

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9311, 10385, 8114

Auto

18.7 18%

Teleop

51.9 50%

Endgame

32.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11224, 9444, 2950

/ 100 compat

Projected

51 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11224, 9444, 2950

Auto

19.8 42%

Teleop

17.1 37%

Endgame

9.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score51pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.1
Score range: 29–133
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.4Season APEX149.5

18.7Auto19.8

51.9Teleop17.1

32.5Endgame9.9

36Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	14
teleop	48	3
endgame	35	0
foul	0	0
total	88	17

Result

Final score

88 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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