Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.33 – 53.65

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 110.4 ±13.9

9137Bionic Vipers

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 17.3Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 1.03Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 15Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 105.9 ±12.1

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 12.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 11.2Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 29.77Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9137, 7138, 11224

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9137, 7138, 11224

Auto

8.7 31%

Teleop

14.5 52%

Endgame

4.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5894, 2950, 4332

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5894, 2950, 4332

Auto

24.2 41%

Teleop

16.3 28%

Endgame

18.1 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.3pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.3
Score range: 14–73
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 103.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

110.4Season APEX105.9

8.7Auto24.2

14.5Teleop16.3

4.8Endgame18.1

21Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	21
teleop	22	23
endgame	6	11
foul	0	0
total	41	55

Result

Final score

41 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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