Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.24 – 66.43

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.4 ±12.2

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 2.03Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 29.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 21.02Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.7 ±12.2

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 44.27Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 20.98Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 1.18Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7521, 4328, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7521, 4328, 10913

Auto

30.2 57%

Teleop

13.1 25%

Endgame

9.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2687, 4364, 7088

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2687, 4364, 7088

Auto

18.5 34%

Teleop

16.7 31%

Endgame

19.0 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.2pts

Blue projected score66.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.2
Score range: 33–85
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 104.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.4Season APEX145.7

30.2Auto18.5

13.1Teleop16.7

9.9Endgame19

30Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	34
teleop	30	34
endgame	18	9
foul	5	0
total	82	77

Result

Final score

82 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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