Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.63 – 150.28

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.3 ±11

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 39.22Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -1.87Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 5.28Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±11.7

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 6.71Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 97.98Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 45.59Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8507, 7088, 9444

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8507, 7088, 9444

Auto

10.7 24%

Teleop

17.2 38%

Endgame

17.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7138, 4639, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7138, 4639, 2158

Auto

24.9 16%

Teleop

84.1 54%

Endgame

47.8 30%

Strengths

· 4639 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.6pts

Blue projected score150.3pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.6
Score range: 24–169
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.3Season APEX227.8

10.7Auto24.9

17.2Teleop84.1

17.2Endgame47.8

73Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	23
teleop	19	54
endgame	19	34
foul	0	0
total	58	111

Result

Final score

58 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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