Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.71 – 109.84

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.3 ±12.8

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 24.19Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 18.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 21.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.3 ±11.7

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 8.25Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 100.51Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 1.08Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4364, 9311, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4364, 9311, 10032

Auto

11.4 21%

Teleop

22.8 41%

Endgame

21.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2950, 3035, 7521

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2950, 3035, 7521

Auto

19.3 18%

Teleop

54.0 49%

Endgame

36.0 33%

Strengths

· 3035 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.7pts

Blue projected score109.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.1
Score range: 46–129
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.3Season APEX319.3

11.4Auto19.3

22.8Teleop54

21.3Endgame36

8Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	41
teleop	10	65
endgame	10	40
foul	5	5
total	42	151

Result

Final score

42 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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