Qualification · Qualification 30
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
143.81 – 13.77
83%17%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
210 – 99
Prediction correct · off by 75.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 112Event APEX 91.08Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 38.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 14.31Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.9 ±12.2
Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -1.33Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 6.34Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 8.76Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4639, 4219, 9478
80
/ 100 compatProjected
143.8 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4639, 4219, 9478
Auto
34.5 23%
Teleop
80.0 53%
Endgame
36.6 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4597, 9137, 9577
14
/ 100 compatProjected
13.8 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 4597, 9137, 9577
Auto
10.9 100%
Teleop
7.7 100%
Endgame
-12.8 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.65
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score143.8pts
Blue projected score13.8pts
Red win probability83%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 130
- Score range
- -5–163
- Upset likelihood
- 17%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
212.1Season APEX123.9
34.5Auto10.9
80Teleop7.7
36.6Endgame-12.8
21Consistency177
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 51 | 17 |
| teleop | 111 | 34 |
| endgame | 48 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 210 | 99 |
Result
Final score
210 – 99
Prediction correct · off by 75.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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