Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.47 – 110.97

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.3 ±12.4

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 114.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 15.6Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 24.03Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.9 ±11

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 5.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 62.38Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 43.09Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3035, 4364, 9478

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3035, 4364, 9478

Auto

32.0 21%

Teleop

84.0 55%

Endgame

36.7 24%

Strengths

· 3035 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7088, 6357, 8088

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7088, 6357, 8088

Auto

27.3 25%

Teleop

51.1 47%

Endgame

29.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.5pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.5
Score range: 89–176
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.3Season APEX211.9

32Auto27.3

84Teleop51.1

36.7Endgame29.5

0Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	17
teleop	56	42
endgame	38	9
foul	15	0
total	148	68

Result

Final score

148 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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