Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.83 – 113.36

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±11.7

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 30.5Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 8.44Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 27.89Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.3 ±12.2

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 29.83Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 30.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 53.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6357, 9444, 4364

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6357, 9444, 4364

Auto

24.3 37%

Teleop

21.9 34%

Endgame

18.9 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11224, 4328, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11224, 4328, 2689

Auto

51.2 45%

Teleop

58.6 52%

Endgame

3.4 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.8pts

Blue projected score113.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.5
Score range: 48–132
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.6Season APEX199.3

24.3Auto51.2

21.9Teleop58.6

18.9Endgame3.4

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	36
teleop	22	28
endgame	13	19
foul	0	0
total	46	83

Result

Final score

46 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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