Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.11 – 139.71

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.7 ±11.7

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 44.82Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 13.7Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 35.59Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±11.7

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 38.03Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 83.19Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 18.49Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2687, 9478, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2687, 9478, 2158

Auto

34.8 36%

Teleop

32.2 33%

Endgame

30.5 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8088, 4639, 9311

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8088, 4639, 9311

Auto

28.5 20%

Teleop

76.0 54%

Endgame

36.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score139.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.6
Score range: 76–158
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 101.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.7Season APEX247.5

34.8Auto28.5

32.2Teleop76

30.5Endgame36

137Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	66	106
endgame	32	49
foul	0	0
total	118	176

Result

Final score

118 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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