Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.75 – 96.29

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.4 ±10.5

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 89.74Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -4.95Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 21.96Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143 ±12.2

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 40.14Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 35.52Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9137Bionic Vipers

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 20.63Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3035, 9444, 4328

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3035, 9444, 4328

Auto

22.7 22%

Teleop

46.6 45%

Endgame

33.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6357, 5894, 9137

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6357, 5894, 9137

Auto

20.7 23%

Teleop

49.7 56%

Endgame

18.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.8pts

Blue projected score96.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.5
Score range: 78–125
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 101.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.4Season APEX143

22.7Auto20.7

46.6Teleop49.7

33.9Endgame18.4

61Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	11
teleop	83	14
endgame	36	15
foul	0	0
total	160	40

Result

Final score

160 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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