Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.88 – 107.78

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173 ±11

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 5.82Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 10.26Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 27.8Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.3 ±11

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 51.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 46.84Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 9.65Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2950, 9577, 8507

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2950, 9577, 8507

Auto

4.6 11%

Teleop

15.6 36%

Endgame

22.9 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2689, 4332, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2689, 4332, 5503

Auto

25.8 23%

Teleop

61.8 56%

Endgame

23.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.9pts

Blue projected score107.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.9
Score range: 26–126
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 101.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173Season APEX190.3

4.6Auto25.8

15.6Teleop61.8

22.9Endgame23.7

213Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	38
teleop	41	39
endgame	13	22
foul	0	5
total	78	104

Result

Final score

78 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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