Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.85 – 81.31

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.2 ±12.2

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 23Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 24.53Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 45.32Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.1 ±10.4

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 9.01Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 42.66Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 29.64Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4364, 4219, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4364, 4219, 10385

Auto

21.4 25%

Teleop

33.1 39%

Endgame

31.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10913, 8114, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10913, 8114, 11169

Auto

23.0 31%

Teleop

38.4 52%

Endgame

12.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.9pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.5
Score range: 63–111
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.2Season APEX218.1

21.4Auto23

33.1Teleop38.4

31.1Endgame12.8

27Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	14
teleop	82	27
endgame	42	35
foul	0	15
total	161	91

Result

Final score

161 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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