Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.73 – 17.08

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.3 ±12.4

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 9.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 32.73Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 146.08Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.5 ±11.6

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -1.96Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 18.42Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 0.62Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9311, 11224, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9311, 11224, 2468

Auto

17.5 9%

Teleop

119.8 64%

Endgame

48.5 26%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7088, 10032, 4597

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7088, 10032, 4597

Auto

11.3 100%

Teleop

-9.8 0%

Endgame

6.9 82%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.7pts

Blue projected score17.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.6
Score range: -1–207
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 98.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.3Season APEX131.5

17.5Auto11.3

119.8Teleop-9.8

48.5Endgame6.9

106Consistency203

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	12
teleop	131	14
endgame	64	9
foul	5	0
total	242	35

Result

Final score

242 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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