Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.29 – 75.02

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.1 ±12.2

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 29.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 16.25Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 1.94Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.6 ±12.2

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 0.02Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 43.85Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 31.15Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8088, 4328, 7138

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8088, 4328, 7138

Auto

6.8 12%

Teleop

37.5 66%

Endgame

12.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7521, 4332, 8507

/ 100 compat

Projected

75 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7521, 4332, 8507

Auto

15.9 21%

Teleop

26.1 35%

Endgame

32.5 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.3pts

Blue projected score75pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.7
Score range: 29–93
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 100.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.1Season APEX151.6

6.8Auto15.9

37.5Teleop26.1

12.6Endgame32.5

70Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	13
teleop	35	26
endgame	9	31
foul	0	0
total	74	70

Result

Final score

74 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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