Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.23 – 88.34

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.4 ±12.2

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 51.41Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 13.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 20.78Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.5 ±11.7

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 5.1Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 24.93Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 58.31Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2689, 2950, 4364

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2689, 2950, 4364

Auto

32.6 42%

Teleop

32.5 42%

Endgame

12.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9444, 9478, 8114

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9444, 9478, 8114

Auto

16.3 19%

Teleop

47.0 54%

Endgame

23.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score88.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.1
Score range: 67–106
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 102.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.4Season APEX183.5

32.6Auto16.3

32.5Teleop47

12.5Endgame23

64Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	14
teleop	37	11
endgame	16	11
foul	0	0
total	80	36

Result

Final score

80 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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