Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.78 – 227.46

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101.5 ±13.3

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 20.3Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -0.52Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX -11Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.1 ±10.7

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 146.12Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 86.14Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX -4.8Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11224, 4597, 7521

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.8 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11224, 4597, 7521

Auto

21.0 100%

Teleop

1.2 14%

Endgame

-13.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2468, 3035, 7138

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2468, 3035, 7138

Auto

33.7 15%

Teleop

123.0 55%

Endgame

68.5 30%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.39 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.8pts

Blue projected score227.5pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -218.7
Score range: -9–245
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101.5Season APEX584.1

21Auto33.7

1.2Teleop123

-13.7Endgame68.5

133Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	12	153
endgame	8	76
foul	5	0
total	36	242

Result

Final score

36 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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