Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.14 – 77.07

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.5 ±10.4

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 6.99Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 17.53Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 6.62Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.1 ±11.6

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 21.01Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 20.32Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 35.74Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2687, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2687, 11169

Auto

10.8 29%

Teleop

14.8 40%

Endgame

11.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4219, 2158, 5894

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4219, 2158, 5894

Auto

4.6 6%

Teleop

36.5 46%

Endgame

37.5 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.1pts

Blue projected score77.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.9
Score range: 13–95
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 99.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.5Season APEX169.1

10.8Auto4.6

14.8Teleop36.5

11.6Endgame37.5

140Consistency214

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	22
teleop	45	45
endgame	33	67
foul	5	0
total	117	134

Result

Final score

117 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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