Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
197.23 – 7.41
91%9%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
253 – 52
Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.6 ±11.2
Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 21.77Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 133.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 42.23Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.7 ±11.7
Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 8.5Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 3.96Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 29.8Event APEX -5.05Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4364, 2468, 8114
88
/ 100 compatProjected
197.2 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 4364, 2468, 8114
Auto
31.0 16%
Teleop
112.0 58%
Endgame
50.0 26%
Strengths
- · 2468 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10032, 9444, 7138
11
/ 100 compatProjected
7.4 pts
~0.4 RP (district)
Teams: 10032, 9444, 7138
Auto
1.1 21%
Teleop
-1.3 0%
Endgame
5.5 100%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score197.2pts
Blue projected score7.4pts
Red win probability91%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 23%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 189.8
- Score range
- -11–215
- Upset likelihood
- 9%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
424.6Season APEX154.7
31Auto1.1
112Teleop-1.3
50Endgame5.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 15 |
| teleop | 132 | 24 |
| endgame | 73 | 13 |
| foul | 30 | 0 |
| total | 253 | 52 |
Result
Final score
253 – 52
Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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