Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.63 – 53.06

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 113.1 ±12.1

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 14.13Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 48.05Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 39.45Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.8 ±11

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 6.86Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 49.62Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -3.42Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7088, 5894, 4328

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7088, 5894, 4328

Auto

12.1 12%

Teleop

59.8 58%

Endgame

31.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11169, 8507, 4597

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 8507, 4597

Auto

19.2 40%

Teleop

22.6 47%

Endgame

5.8 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.6pts

Blue projected score53.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.6
Score range: 35–120
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

113.1Season APEX167.8

12.1Auto19.2

59.8Teleop22.6

31.1Endgame5.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	19
teleop	13	23
endgame	10	31
foul	0	0
total	47	73

Result

Final score

47 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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