Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.51 – 119.38

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.1 ±9.8

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 96.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 17.5Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 62.61Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.5 ±12.2

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 27.86Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 51.4Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 40.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3035, 10913, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3035, 10913, 10385

Auto

29.4 17%

Teleop

85.7 49%

Endgame

59.2 34%

Strengths

· 3035 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5503, 11224, 4219

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 11224, 4219

Auto

18.7 15%

Teleop

67.1 55%

Endgame

36.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.5pts

Blue projected score119.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.1
Score range: 101–195
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 99.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.1Season APEX144.5

29.4Auto18.7

85.7Teleop67.1

59.2Endgame36.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	6
teleop	62	24
endgame	26	13
foul	15	0
total	146	43

Result

Final score

146 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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