Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.73 – 187.02

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.2 ±10.5

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 25.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 170.19Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 15.38Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.5 ±10.4

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 96.89Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 61.41Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 28.72Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4328, 2468, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4328, 2468, 5503

Auto

33.8 17%

Teleop

114.2 56%

Endgame

56.0 27%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4639, 2687, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

187 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4639, 2687, 10913

Auto

51.1 28%

Teleop

90.7 50%

Endgame

40.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.7pts

Blue projected score187pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 165–233
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 123.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.2Season APEX254.5

33.8Auto51.1

114.2Teleop90.7

56Endgame40.6

38Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	42
teleop	112	48
endgame	67	15
foul	0	0
total	199	105

Result

Final score

199 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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