Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.25 – 179.72

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.3 ±9.3

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 16.88Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 171.56Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 116.81Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±10.4

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 16.31Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 99.47Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 63.94Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2468, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2468, 3035

Auto

43.0 14%

Teleop

175.0 59%

Endgame

81.1 27%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9444, 4639, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9444, 4639, 2687

Auto

43.5 25%

Teleop

86.5 49%

Endgame

46.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score305.3pts

Blue projected score179.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.5
Score range: 158–327
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.3Season APEX242.7

43Auto43.5

175Teleop86.5

81.1Endgame46.3

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	24
teleop	118	57
endgame	75	20
foul	15	0
total	259	101

Result

Final score

259 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

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