Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
215.63 – 281.96
30%70%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
212 – 312
Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.7 ±11
Season APEX 91Event APEX 45.4Rank 12Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 64.85Rank 6Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 105.38Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 110.39Rank 5Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 34.54Rank 10Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 137.03Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 436, 9577, 9506
65
/ 100 compatProjected
215.6 pts
~1.6 RP (offseason)
Teams: 436, 9577, 9506
Auto
39.8 19%
Teleop
130.8 61%
Endgame
44.1 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 87%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 418, 2587, 2881
77
/ 100 compatProjected
282 pts
~2.3 RP (offseason)
Teams: 418, 2587, 2881
Auto
42.7 15%
Teleop
157.4 56%
Endgame
81.3 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 87%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.56 · Blue 2.31
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score215.6pts
Blue projected score282pts
Red win probability30%
Event bonus sample48alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 87%, blue 84%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -66.3
- Score range
- 178–320
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
236.7Season APEX467.8
39.8Auto42.7
130.8Teleop157.4
44.1Endgame81.3
89Consistency86
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 51 | 63 |
| teleop | 76 | 191 |
| endgame | 85 | 58 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 212 | 312 |
Result
Final score
212 – 312
Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree