Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
201.31 – 261.19
32%68%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
273 – 107
Prediction missed · off by 112.9 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 124.6Event APEX -8.31Rank 10Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 69.13Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 140.49Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.6 ±10.5
Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 49.68Rank 9Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 35.85Rank 11Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 175.66Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2587, 9506, 2881
58
/ 100 compatProjected
201.3 pts
~1.6 RP (offseason)
Teams: 2587, 9506, 2881
Auto
35.3 17%
Teleop
85.3 42%
Endgame
84.2 41%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 84%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6357, 8515, 3847
76
/ 100 compatProjected
261.2 pts
~2.2 RP (offseason)
Teams: 6357, 8515, 3847
Auto
48.0 20%
Teleop
132.9 56%
Endgame
58.0 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 84%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.61 · Blue 2.19
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score201.3pts
Blue projected score261.2pts
Red win probability32%
Event bonus sample48alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 84%, blue 76%
Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -59.9
- Score range
- 164–298
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
451.3Season APEX437.6
35.3Auto48
85.3Teleop132.9
84.2Endgame58
63Consistency64
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 52 | 44 |
| teleop | 142 | 47 |
| endgame | 69 | 11 |
| foul | 10 | 5 |
| total | 273 | 107 |
Result
Final score
273 – 107
Prediction missed · off by 112.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree