FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

312.96 – 394.23

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.2 ±9.8

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 90.97Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 117.03Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 104.96Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 673.5 ±8.7

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 147.11Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 74.05Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 173.07Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4639, 7312, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

313 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4639, 7312, 5572

Auto

46.9 15%

Teleop

180.6 59%

Endgame

78.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2848, 5414, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2848, 5414, 8749

Auto

63.9 17%

Teleop

220.1 58%

Endgame

98.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313pts

Blue projected score394.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.3
Score range: 258–449
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 795 vs event baseline 304.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.2Season APEX673.5

46.9Auto63.9

180.6Teleop220.1

78.9Endgame98.7

99Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	100
teleop	113	297
endgame	108	139
foul	0	0
total	259	536

Result

Final score

259 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.