FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.38 – 300.77

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

536 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.3

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 179.21Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 87.92Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 165.25Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.3 ±9.3

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 117.22Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 81.31Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 102.24Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 6357, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4206, 6357, 148

Auto

75.4 18%

Teleop

246.7 58%

Endgame

102.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8858, 3310, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8858, 3310, 2583

Auto

60.8 21%

Teleop

179.8 61%

Endgame

52.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score432.4pts

Blue projected score300.8pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.6
Score range: 246–487
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 865 vs event baseline 303.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX615.3

75.4Auto60.8

246.7Teleop179.8

102.9Endgame52.3

124Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	46
teleop	288	213
endgame	142	65
foul	5	5
total	536	329

Result

Final score

536 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 pts

Match videos

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