FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

324.18 – 382.93

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

414 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.7 ±9.8

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 85.74Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 121.71Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 116.73Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 673.5 ±8.7

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 143.48Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 70.07Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 169.38Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 5427, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9506, 5427, 3035

Auto

56.1 18%

Teleop

180.2 56%

Endgame

83.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2848, 5414, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2848, 5414, 8749

Auto

60.3 16%

Teleop

203.2 55%

Endgame

105.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.54 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score324.2pts

Blue projected score382.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.7
Score range: 270–437
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 865 vs event baseline 299.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.7Season APEX673.5

56.1Auto60.3

180.2Teleop203.2

83.4Endgame105.5

118Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	81
teleop	201	298
endgame	140	72
foul	5	0
total	414	451

Result

Final score

414 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 pts

Match videos

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