FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.86 – 340.6

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

394 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±10.4

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 95.98Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 100.65Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 145.23Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.4 ±9.8

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 63.81Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 155.17Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 121.62Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8576, 418, 2714

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8576, 418, 2714

Auto

68.1 20%

Teleop

182.0 54%

Endgame

88.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4192, 6773, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4192, 6773, 4063

Auto

71.2 21%

Teleop

187.5 56%

Endgame

77.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.9pts

Blue projected score340.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.3
Score range: 287–396
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 299.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.4Season APEX419.4

68.1Auto71.2

182Teleop187.5

88Endgame77.9

139Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	77
teleop	253	154
endgame	104	58
foul	0	0
total	394	289

Result

Final score

394 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Match videos

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