FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.98 – 290.68

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

336 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.5 ±8.7

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 148.02Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 73.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 173.56Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.3 ±9.3

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 114.64Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 98.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 77.89Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 5414, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

395 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2848, 5414, 8749

Auto

66.4 17%

Teleop

217.3 57%

Endgame

97.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8858, 2583, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8858, 2583, 3310

Auto

57.1 20%

Teleop

176.4 62%

Endgame

51.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score395pts

Blue projected score290.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.3
Score range: 237–449
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 682 vs event baseline 299.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.5Season APEX615.3

66.4Auto57.1

217.3Teleop176.4

97.7Endgame51.2

88Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	73
teleop	150	200
endgame	134	58
foul	15	15
total	336	346

Result

Final score

336 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 57.2 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.