FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

435.26 – 338.38

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.3

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 180.65Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 88.5Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 166.11Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.7 ±9.8

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 91.06Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 125.64Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 121.68Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 6357, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4206, 6357, 148

Auto

76.0 17%

Teleop

252.2 58%

Endgame

106.9 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9506, 5427, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9506, 5427, 3035

Auto

54.4 16%

Teleop

190.6 57%

Endgame

87.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score435.3pts

Blue projected score338.4pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.9
Score range: 284–489
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 298.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX470.7

76Auto54.4

252.2Teleop190.6

106.9Endgame87.4

125Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	59
teleop	219	139
endgame	90	70
foul	35	0
total	417	268

Result

Final score

417 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Match videos

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