FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

358.69 – 320.61

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 351

Prediction missed · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.4 ±9.8

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 69.92Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 161.3Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 127.47Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.2 ±9.8

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 92.98Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 120.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 107.27Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4192, 6773, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4192, 6773, 4063

Auto

77.0 22%

Teleop

197.6 56%

Endgame

80.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4639, 7312, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4639, 7312, 5572

Auto

48.8 16%

Teleop

201.8 64%

Endgame

62.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score358.7pts

Blue projected score320.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.1
Score range: 267–413
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 298.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.4Season APEX465.2

77Auto48.8

197.6Teleop201.8

80Endgame62.3

119Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	59
teleop	143	156
endgame	73	131
foul	5	5
total	271	351

Result

Final score

271 – 351

Prediction missed · off by 59 pts

Match videos

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