FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

417.27 – 422.78

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

407 – 528

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.3

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 172.69Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 83.66Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 160.92Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 673.5 ±8.7

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 156.63Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 83.77Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 182.38Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 6357, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4206, 6357, 148

Auto

79.0 19%

Teleop

237.8 58%

Endgame

94.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2848, 5414, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2848, 5414, 8749

Auto

70.4 17%

Teleop

235.6 57%

Endgame

108.1 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score417.3pts

Blue projected score422.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.5
Score range: 361–479
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 935 vs event baseline 309.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX673.5

79Auto70.4

237.8Teleop235.6

94.2Endgame108.1

102Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	97
teleop	212	253
endgame	96	163
foul	0	15
total	407	528

Result

Final score

407 – 528

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 pts

Match videos

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