FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

329.31 – 417.31

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

390 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.3 ±9.3

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 112.9Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 126.05Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 90.36Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 673.5 ±8.7

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 81.87Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 154.8Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 180.64Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2583, 8858, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2583, 8858, 3310

Auto

57.7 18%

Teleop

196.9 61%

Endgame

68.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5414, 2848, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5414, 2848, 8749

Auto

69.3 17%

Teleop

232.9 57%

Endgame

105.2 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score329.3pts

Blue projected score417.3pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88
Score range: 274–472
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 849 vs event baseline 308.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.3Season APEX673.5

57.7Auto69.3

196.9Teleop232.9

68.4Endgame105.2

87Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	78
teleop	191	254
endgame	142	127
foul	5	0
total	390	459

Result

Final score

390 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 pts

Match videos

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