FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

305.26 – 348.18

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

467 – 401

Prediction missed · off by 107.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.3 ±9.3

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 117.97Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 82.88Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 104.41Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±10.4

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 96.48Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 103.91Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 147.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8858, 3310, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8858, 3310, 2583

Auto

58.3 20%

Teleop

185.4 62%

Endgame

54.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8576, 418, 2714

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8576, 418, 2714

Auto

63.0 18%

Teleop

192.4 56%

Endgame

89.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.47 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score305.3pts

Blue projected score348.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.9
Score range: 250–403
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 868 vs event baseline 305.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.3Season APEX391.4

58.3Auto63

185.4Teleop192.4

54.2Endgame89.5

93Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	81
teleop	259	240
endgame	153	80
foul	0	0
total	467	401

Result

Final score

467 – 401

Prediction missed · off by 107.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.