FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.37 – 297.3

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

452 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508 ±9.8

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 169.46Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 124.07Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 115.84Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311 ±9.8

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 109.46Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 53.78Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 134.06Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8749, 4063, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8749, 4063, 7312

Auto

76.4 19%

Teleop

229.6 57%

Endgame

96.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 127, 5411, 457

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 127, 5411, 457

Auto

41.6 14%

Teleop

178.7 60%

Endgame

77.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score409.4pts

Blue projected score297.3pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.1
Score range: 244–462
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 632 vs event baseline 296.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508Season APEX311

76.4Auto41.6

229.6Teleop178.7

96.3Endgame77.8

76Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	40
teleop	239	88
endgame	130	47
foul	5	5
total	452	180

Result

Final score

452 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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