FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.72 – 245.14

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±9.8

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 56.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 39.14Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 62.29Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.2 ±10.4

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 125.71Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 102Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 17.43Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8858, 9136, 4153

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8858, 9136, 4153

Auto

28.3 18%

Teleop

101.1 64%

Endgame

28.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4063, 5427, 8818

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4063, 5427, 8818

Auto

50.6 21%

Teleop

131.4 55%

Endgame

58.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score157.7pts

Blue projected score245.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.4
Score range: 110–293
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 268.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.4Season APEX302.2

28.3Auto50.6

101.1Teleop131.4

28.3Endgame58.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	43
teleop	122	141
endgame	66	61
foul	15	0
total	222	245

Result

Final score

222 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.