FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.74 – 304.79

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

262 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546 ±9.3

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 159.43Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 117.13Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 80.18Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.9 ±9.3

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 47.21Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 112.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 144.59Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2714, 5572, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2714, 5572, 5414

Auto

53.6 15%

Teleop

207.1 59%

Endgame

92.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8769, 8858, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8769, 8858, 2848

Auto

35.9 12%

Teleop

176.1 59%

Endgame

86.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score356.7pts

Blue projected score304.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.9
Score range: 252–410
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 610 vs event baseline 295.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546Season APEX544.9

53.6Auto35.9

207.1Teleop176.1

92.2Endgame86.6

65Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	64
teleop	124	138
endgame	68	81
foul	0	65
total	262	348

Result

Final score

262 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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