FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.56 – 52.36

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.7 ±10.4

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 17.32Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 70.96Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 86.28Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.1 ±10.4

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 26.32Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 14.7Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.34Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10913, 8114, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10913, 8114, 7492

Auto

14.7 9%

Teleop

106.3 62%

Endgame

49.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4153, 11169, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4153, 11169, 5503

Auto

19.8 54%

Teleop

-3.5 0%

Endgame

20.7 56%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score174.6pts

Blue projected score52.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.2
Score range: -2–229
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 297.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.7Season APEX166.1

14.7Auto19.8

106.3Teleop-3.5

49.6Endgame20.7

107Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	26
teleop	116	14
endgame	61	10
foul	0	0
total	224	50

Result

Final score

224 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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