FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.51 – 150.35

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440 ±9.8

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 161.87Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 121.62Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 13.02Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.2 ±10.4

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 36.63Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 31.41Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 82.31Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 148, 5427, 10518

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 148, 5427, 10518

Auto

42.1 14%

Teleop

159.9 54%

Endgame

94.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9136, 8177, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9136, 8177, 6357

Auto

29.5 20%

Teleop

79.5 53%

Endgame

40.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score296.5pts

Blue projected score150.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.2
Score range: 96–351
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 545 vs event baseline 298.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440Season APEX209.2

42.1Auto29.5

159.9Teleop79.5

94.5Endgame40.3

91Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	31
teleop	175	127
endgame	72	46
foul	15	0
total	341	204

Result

Final score

341 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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