FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

350.01 – 478.01

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

437 – 494

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559 ±9.3

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 82.7Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 152.22Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 115.09Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.6 ±9.3

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 95.75Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 280.92Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 101.34Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 6773, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

350 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9506, 6773, 3035

Auto

75.6 22%

Teleop

189.3 56%

Endgame

75.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2583, 9128, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

478 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2583, 9128, 2158

Auto

124.2 26%

Teleop

257.3 55%

Endgame

88.6 19%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score350pts

Blue projected score478pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128
Score range: 297–531
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 931 vs event baseline 296.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559Season APEX681.6

75.6Auto124.2

189.3Teleop257.3

75.3Endgame88.6

160Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	97
teleop	244	284
endgame	112	113
foul	0	0
total	437	494

Result

Final score

437 – 494

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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