FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

200.94 – 368.48

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

255 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.7 ±10.4

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 93.11Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 105.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 2.59Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.1 ±9.8

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 107.17Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 79.52Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 181.79Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2689, 418, 8818

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2689, 418, 8818

Auto

50.8 25%

Teleop

88.4 43%

Endgame

66.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8576, 3310, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8576, 3310, 4206

Auto

60.1 16%

Teleop

228.4 62%

Endgame

79.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score200.9pts

Blue projected score368.5pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -167.5
Score range: 148–421
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 296.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.7Season APEX488.1

50.8Auto60.1

88.4Teleop228.4

66Endgame79.5

84Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	35
teleop	141	228
endgame	68	66
foul	0	30
total	255	359

Result

Final score

255 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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