FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.82 – 170.52

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308 ±10.4

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 117.6Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 92.6Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 69.62Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.4 ±10.4

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 75.66Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 40.12Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 54.74Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10385, 4639, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10385, 4639, 4192

Auto

52.1 19%

Teleop

168.9 61%

Endgame

55.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3561, 231, 7616

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3561, 231, 7616

Auto

37.8 23%

Teleop

88.1 53%

Endgame

40.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score279.8pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.3
Score range: 118–333
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 296.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308Season APEX277.4

52.1Auto37.8

168.9Teleop88.1

55.8Endgame40.7

98Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	26
teleop	194	147
endgame	69	104
foul	0	15
total	298	292

Result

Final score

298 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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