FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.45 – 518.02

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.9 ±9.8

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 42.41Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 76.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 135.78Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 685.4 ±8.8

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 145.25Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 284.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 88.28Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4153, 11178, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4153, 11178, 5572

Auto

42.9 17%

Teleop

147.5 60%

Endgame

55.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 457, 6369, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

518 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 457, 6369, 9140

Auto

80.6 16%

Teleop

284.2 55%

Endgame

147.8 29%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score254.5pts

Blue projected score518pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -263.6
Score range: 201–571
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 296.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.9Season APEX685.4

42.9Auto80.6

147.5Teleop284.2

55.7Endgame147.8

107Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	86
teleop	23	290
endgame	17	59
foul	15	0
total	77	435

Result

Final score

77 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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